Covid Update 2020-07-10

Covid Update 2020-07-10 150 150 CloudGovCo

There is promising progress about Covid in Canada. Deaths have declined from a peak of 222/day May 31 to 29-12/day July 8-9. This is less than 1 death per million nationally; although higher in Ontario and Quebec. Toronto, for example, is still in partial lockdown. Ontario had 130 new daily cases and Quebec 91, so we are still not out of the woods.

The threshold of 1/million puts us in the territory of eliminating the virus in Canada if we have effective travel and border controls, with strict quarantine protocols.

Keeping the US border closed is supremely critical, with that country in a frenzy of feeding of self destruction. Hopefully this does not turn into outward military action before November.

Covid Canada 2020-07-10

Covid Canada 2020-07-10

There are some counterfactuals. As shown in the graph the number of daily cases looks like it has plateaued, which means that new spikes are always possible. Also, Melbourne Australia is a recent cautionary tale as it has had to go back into an emergency lockdown. Ditto for Sydney.

Keeping the virus deaths below 1/million is critical to opening schools while following CDC guidelines. While there is evidence children are not badly affected by Covid, there is no medical explanation for this. Nobody seems to be asking the question of why children seem to be more or less immune. And, of course, if children are asymptomatic carriers they still have the potential of infecting teachers and parents.